Monday, May 26, 2008
Willa Strucuńska Tarnów
Meteorology and political
remember my friend Patrick Walker, who was visiting me back in 2002 in Heidelberg, I raised it was very difficult to beat Joaquin Lavin in the 2006 presidential election, as polls showed this far any candidate for the Concertación also be added to the fact pessimism installed in the collation of Government, an effervescence in the right-wing opposition and confusion in the Christian Democrats, thus the possibility of having a fourth government of the Concertación were very low. That was not just the opinion of a couple of the ruling coalition, but was a sensation, that by that time, had settled in the environment of the governing parties. It will be recalled, the article misunderstood Cortez Antonio Terzi "Dance of Farewell" and several were own goals with the spurious argument of alternation in government, as if by good offices he should give the government the right, and not which he noted was missing, which was good out of the government to rebuild morally, as if rule out almost immoral.
is easy to be true that General after the battle, but as I pointed out is the former President of the Chamber of Deputies, where we toured the "Way of the Philosophers" in Heidelberg, in politics a day is much longer and that a strong candidate, it required a coalition and a party (DC), with the conviction of a joint development project for the country. I remember discussing on the right, which always falls on his own contradictions undemocratic, authoritarian and arrogant, so people could change the intention or sympathy for the only candidate who ran up to that time, to another alternative.
Political science, as science predicts not only from the empirical facts draws conclusions from the medium and long range. Today and volcanologists, meteorologists and dare to predict what may happen tomorrow with the nature of Chile, which is far more predictable than the native policy. But is that now as in 2002, a number of political forecasters, casters political science, political scientists, soothsayers and all things that throw the letters, all more or less secure a premonition, note that the Coalition and the Christian Democrats lost in 2010, further, that the PDC has no chance, either in front or right front to block the socialist-liberal coalition.
If this picture was always like, Barack Obama should never have been presented as Democratic candidate for U.S. presidential elections since the war well into pre-election contained below in the polls, compared to Senator Hillary Clinton, if everything was so linear, the current President of Mexico Felipe Calderón, should never have been filed as a candidate, Manuel Lopez Obrador since surpassed it for a long time in presidential polls, for Angela Merkel to say, neither should have been deeply involved in his candidacy against Edmund Stoiber, because the latter appeared better in the polls by the bloc CDU / CSU against former Social Democratic Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder in the 2005 election, in short, policy if it were only make calculations in a hurry, the old President Eduardo Frei, should never have been president of Chile, that its first election of 1958 was third, and to say Don Patricio Aylwin, who some polls gave him third in the DC to be a candidate in 1989. One could go on and prove how wrong you are always people from the social picture of the moment draw conclusions from long range, this as mentioned above, nor political science can.
modern political parties to compete and try to win elections, regardless of the scenario that the polls indicate, you must read in order to serve society better, change course. The DC is the largest party in the coalition and therefore has every right to wear political candidat @ presidential but in a different mood than the current, creative, modern and respect the leadership that exist in DC, a key issue for a party that aspires to power. In this context, leaders can not be questioned in public for nonsense, not between them or against them, the leaders have to care, support and defend them, that makes a stronger party against his contenders and competitors electoral otherwise Well that should be left to political meteorologists.
Andres Jouannet Valderrama
Doctor of Political Science University of Heidelberg
remember my friend Patrick Walker, who was visiting me back in 2002 in Heidelberg, I raised it was very difficult to beat Joaquin Lavin in the 2006 presidential election, as polls showed this far any candidate for the Concertación also be added to the fact pessimism installed in the collation of Government, an effervescence in the right-wing opposition and confusion in the Christian Democrats, thus the possibility of having a fourth government of the Concertación were very low. That was not just the opinion of a couple of the ruling coalition, but was a sensation, that by that time, had settled in the environment of the governing parties. It will be recalled, the article misunderstood Cortez Antonio Terzi "Dance of Farewell" and several were own goals with the spurious argument of alternation in government, as if by good offices he should give the government the right, and not which he noted was missing, which was good out of the government to rebuild morally, as if rule out almost immoral.
is easy to be true that General after the battle, but as I pointed out is the former President of the Chamber of Deputies, where we toured the "Way of the Philosophers" in Heidelberg, in politics a day is much longer and that a strong candidate, it required a coalition and a party (DC), with the conviction of a joint development project for the country. I remember discussing on the right, which always falls on his own contradictions undemocratic, authoritarian and arrogant, so people could change the intention or sympathy for the only candidate who ran up to that time, to another alternative.
Political science, as science predicts not only from the empirical facts draws conclusions from the medium and long range. Today and volcanologists, meteorologists and dare to predict what may happen tomorrow with the nature of Chile, which is far more predictable than the native policy. But is that now as in 2002, a number of political forecasters, casters political science, political scientists, soothsayers and all things that throw the letters, all more or less secure a premonition, note that the Coalition and the Christian Democrats lost in 2010, further, that the PDC has no chance, either in front or right front to block the socialist-liberal coalition.
If this picture was always like, Barack Obama should never have been presented as Democratic candidate for U.S. presidential elections since the war well into pre-election contained below in the polls, compared to Senator Hillary Clinton, if everything was so linear, the current President of Mexico Felipe Calderón, should never have been filed as a candidate, Manuel Lopez Obrador since surpassed it for a long time in presidential polls, for Angela Merkel to say, neither should have been deeply involved in his candidacy against Edmund Stoiber, because the latter appeared better in the polls by the bloc CDU / CSU against former Social Democratic Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder in the 2005 election, in short, policy if it were only make calculations in a hurry, the old President Eduardo Frei, should never have been president of Chile, that its first election of 1958 was third, and to say Don Patricio Aylwin, who some polls gave him third in the DC to be a candidate in 1989. One could go on and prove how wrong you are always people from the social picture of the moment draw conclusions from long range, this as mentioned above, nor political science can.
modern political parties to compete and try to win elections, regardless of the scenario that the polls indicate, you must read in order to serve society better, change course. The DC is the largest party in the coalition and therefore has every right to wear political candidat @ presidential but in a different mood than the current, creative, modern and respect the leadership that exist in DC, a key issue for a party that aspires to power. In this context, leaders can not be questioned in public for nonsense, not between them or against them, the leaders have to care, support and defend them, that makes a stronger party against his contenders and competitors electoral otherwise Well that should be left to political meteorologists.
Andres Jouannet Valderrama
Doctor of Political Science University of Heidelberg
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)